+224 GW projected summer peak growthNERC — Long-Term Reliability Assessment
NERC's current 10-year assessment projects U.S. summer peak demand rising by more than 224 GW, with AI and data centers driving much of the increase. The outlook curve is an illustrative rendering of that trajectory, not a year-by-year forecast.
2,060+ GW waiting in interconnection queuesLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory — "Queued Up"
Berkeley Lab reports more than 2,060 GW of generation and storage actively seeking grid interconnection at the end of 2025 — exceeding the nation's total installed generating capacity. The dataset is published under CC BY 4.0.
5+ year typical interconnection timelinesLBNL / DOE interconnection studies
Median time from interconnection request to commercial operation now exceeds five years for recently built projects.
1–2+ year transformer lead timesNREL / DOE supply-chain assessments
Distribution transformer procurement lead times have stretched from weeks to one-to-two-plus years amid demand growth and manufacturing constraints.
Transmission urgencyDOE — National Transmission Study (draft, July 2026)
DOE's draft study finds additional transmission urgently needed due to rapidly growing loads, new generation and congestion.
Residential rates: flat for a decade, ~5%/yr since 2020EIA Electricity Monthly Update · American Action Forum analysis
U.S. average residential prices grew ~0.7%/yr from 2013–2020, then ~5.5%/yr in 2020–22 and ~4.5%/yr since; the national average reached 18.4¢/kWh in 2026.
California utility rates up 77–105% since 2014CPUC Public Advocates Office — 2022 Electric Rates Report
Residential rate increases across California's investor-owned utilities ranged from 77% to 105% since 2014, driven by wildfire safety, aging infrastructure and grid investment recovered through rates.
+6–29% national rate impact by 2030 from data-center demandNC State · Carnegie Mellon · Pittsburgh · Toronto (May 2026); PJM Independent Market Monitor
The joint study projects a 6–29% national average increase attributable to data-center and crypto demand by 2030 (up to 57% in the hardest-hit regions). PJM's market monitor found data-center load raised 2025–26 capacity costs by $9.3 billion (+174%).
100,000 home batteries · ~535 MW · $2/kWhPG&E newsroom · CleanTechnica · SolarReviews · Electrek
On July 29, 2025, PG&E, SCE and SDG&E dispatched roughly 100,000 residential batteries (Tesla and Sunrun) as one virtual power plant, supplying about 535 MW at the evening peak. Tesla's ELRP-based program pays participants $2.00 per additional kWh delivered during events; Tesla reports more than $10 million paid to Powerwall owners through its VPPs.
SCE residential rates: 18.9¢ → ~35¢/kWh, and more approved through 2028SCE rate advisories (Oct 2025, Jan 2026) · CPUC — Decision in SCE's 2025 General Rate Case (Sep 18, 2025)
SCE's average residential rate rose from about 18.9¢/kWh in 2014 to roughly 34.5¢ in 2024 (+83%); the October 1, 2025 change alone raised the average residential bill 12.9%, to about 35.3¢/kWh. Separately, the CPUC's rate-case decision authorizes SCE's base revenue to rise from $9.66 billion (2025) to $11.18 billion (2028) — about +9.1% for a typical customer in 2025 and roughly +2.7% a year in 2026–2028 — for wildfire undergrounding, aging infrastructure and load growth. That base-rate component sits on top of transmission, wildfire-fund, fuel and program charges, which is why total bills rise faster than any single rate case.
How we estimate the yearly rate increaseGrid Stability bill analysis · SCE 2014 average residential rate
We take a real rate then and a real rate now and solve for the yearly growth that connects them: yearly increase = (rate now ÷ rate then)1 ÷ years − 1. Edison homes analyzed by Grid Stability in September 2026 average about 40¢/kWh (some as high as 47¢); SCE's average residential rate in 2014 was about 18.9¢. (40 ÷ 18.9)1/12 − 1 ≈ 6.5% per year, compounding. The chart's price line and the rate slider use that pace; the 2035 figure is 40¢ × 1.0659 ≈ 70¢. This is a projection, not a forecast — it assumes the last twelve years' pace continues.
Methodology — Figures are national estimates compiled from the public assessments above; they are reviewed periodically (last review: September 2026) and are not live telemetry. The stress test is an illustrative model of compounding constraint, not a simulation of any specific event. The "$24,900 → $0" figure illustrates a representative residential system cost covered under PPA financing; PPA economics ("~20%" rate reduction, "$0 out of pocket") describe typical qualifying high-usage households in Grid Stability's service programs. Individual eligibility, savings and terms vary by utility territory, usage profile and program.